Diffusion Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network-Based Load Forecasting During COVID-19 Pandemic Situation

Infected by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19 – C-19) pandemic, worldwide energy generation and utilization have altered immensely. It remains unfamiliar in any case that traditional short-term load forecasting methodologies centered upon single-task, single-area, and standard signals could precisely catch the load pattern during the C-19 and must be cautiously analyzed. An effectual administration and finer planning by the power concerns remain of higher importance for precise electrical load forecasting. There presents a higher degree of unpredictability's in the load time series (TS) that remains arduous in doing the precise short-term load forecast (SLF), medium-term load forecast (MLF), and long-term load forecast (LLF). For excerpting the local trends and capturing similar patterns of short and medium forecasting TS, we proffer Diffusion Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network (DCRNN), which attains finer execution and normalization by employing knowledge transition betwixt disparate forecasting jobs. This as well evens the portrayals if many layers remain stacked. The paradigms have been tested centered upon the actual life by performing comprehensive experimentations for authenticating their steadiness and applicability. The execution has been computed concerning squared error, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Consequently, the proffered DCRNN attains 0.0534 of MSE in the Chicago area, 0.1691 of MAPE in the Seattle area, and 0.0634 of MAE in the Seattle area. © 2022 Lavoisier. All rights reserved.

Short-Term State Electricity Load Forecasting Based on Transfer-Informer

The worldwide COVID-19 pandemic has caused an enormous impact on the operation mode of human society. Such sudden events bring sharp fluctuations and data inadequacy in datasets of several areas, which leads to challenges in solving related problems. Traditional deep learning models like CNN have shown relatively poor performance with small datasets during the COVID-19 pandemic. This is because the data insufficiency and fluctuations lead to serious problems in the training process. In our work, an Informer framework combined with Transfer learning methods (Transfer-Informer) is proposed to solve the data insufficiency in emergency situations, as well as to provide a more efficient self-attention mechanism for deep feature mining, with two distinctive advantages: (1) The ProbSpares self-attention mechanisms, which enables the proposed model to highlight dominant information and extract more typical features from time-series datasets. (2) The Transfer learning framework improves the generalization capability of the model, by transferring basic knowledge from normal situations to emergency cases with fewer data. In our experiments, Transfer-Informer is applied to short-term load forecasting, which achieves better predicting accuracy than traditional models. The empirical results indicate that the proposed model has put forward a baseline for short-term load forecasting in emergency situations and provided a feasible method to tackle sudden fluctuations in real problem-solving. © 2022 IEEE.

Short-Term State Electricity Load Forecasting Based on Transfer-Informer

The worldwide COVID-19 pandemic has caused an enormous impact on the operation mode of human society. Such sudden events bring sharp fluctuations and data inadequacy in datasets of several areas, which leads to challenges in solving related problems. Traditional deep learning models like CNN have shown relatively poor performance with small datasets during the COVID-19 pandemic. This is because the data insufficiency and fluctuations lead to serious problems in the training process. In our work, an Informer framework combined with Transfer learning methods (Transfer-Informer) is proposed to solve the data insufficiency in emergency situations, as well as to provide a more efficient self-attention mechanism for deep feature mining, with two distinctive advantages: (1) The ProbSpares self-attention mechanisms, which enables the proposed model to highlight dominant information and extract more typical features from time-series datasets. (2) The Transfer learning framework improves the generalization capability of the model, by transferring basic knowledge from normal situations to emergency cases with fewer data. In our experiments, Transfer-Informer is applied to short-term load forecasting, which achieves better predicting accuracy than traditional models. The empirical results indicate that the proposed model has put forward a baseline for short-term load forecasting in emergency situations and provided a feasible method to tackle sudden fluctuations in real problem-solving. © 2022 IEEE.

Electricity Load Forecasting under COVID-19

The outbreak of novel coronavirus disease in 2020 has profoundly impacted all aspects of lives and posed a unique challenge in energy load forecasting. With the increase of the COVID-19 cases, governments worldwide impose strict social distancing and limit the mobility of the population, which causes a shift in load consumption magnitude and pattern. In this paper, we first identify the most influential COVID-19 features for load reduction. Then, we propose a new load forecasting model that includes the new features. The case study on the New York City data set demonstrates that our new forecasting model can efficiently provide new load prediction in the pandemic period. © 2021 IEEE.